Gartner’s Cybersecurity Predictions for 2024 

Gartner’s Cybersecurity Predictions for 2024 

Every year Gartner releases predictions that are based on extensive research and insightful findings from the world of cybersecurity.  

Here is what they have predicted for the year 2024:

Trend 1: Generative AI offers a long-term promise but is skeptical in the short run 

Gartner predicted that security leaders will prepare themselves for the evolution of Generative AI (GenAI). They have recommended using GenAI through proactive collaboration with business stakeholders supporting them in the safe, ethical, and secure use of the technology.  

Experts predict that GenAI will face prompt fatigue not promising anything in the short run. However, experiments and applications that involve the use of GenAI in security operations point towards some promise in the long run. 

Trend 2: Increased reliance on Outcome-Driven Metrics (ODM)  

What are Outcome Driven Metrics (ODMs)?  

ODMs or Outcomes are actionable and insightful metrics aligned with business goals that are data-driven, measurable, and focused on prevention and resilience.  

What are some examples of Outcome Driven Metrics (ODMs)? 

Some examples of Outcome-Driven Metrics include Mean Time to Detect (MTTD), Mean Time to Respond (MTR), and Security Return on Investment (ROI).  

Due to the rise in the frequency of cybersecurity and the negative impact it has on businesses, there will be increased adoption of ODMs. This will enable stakeholders to easily gain visibility of the investment against the delivered protection levels.  

According to Gartner, ODMs will become fundamental to an effective defensible cybersecurity investment strategy and will serve as a credible & defensible expression of risk appetite that supports direct investments to change protection levels. 

Trend 3: Organizations boost behavior and culture programs to reduce human risks 

As per Gartner’s prediction, there will be a shift in focus from increasing awareness to changing behavior to reduce cybersecurity risk.  

Organizations will prioritize the adoption of enterprise-wide Security Behavior and Cultural Programs (SBCPs). It will increase the efficiency in the use of cybersecurity resources and improve competency in making independent cyber risk decisions. 

What are Security Behavior and Cultural Programs? 

As opposed to Security Awareness Training (SAT) Programs, Security Behavior, and Cultural Programs focus on addressing employee cybersecurity risk behaviors. They emphasized organizational adoption of behaviors that are based on the best cybersecurity practices.  

Gartner predicts that by 2027, 50% of CISOs from large enterprises will have adopted human-centric security design practices. It will significantly impact organizations through an increase in the adoption of controls and minimization of cybersecurity-induced friction.  

Trend 4: Increased focus on resilience-oriented investments and third-party risk management 

According to Gartner’s predictions, security leaders will shift focus from front-loaded due diligence activities to resilience-oriented investments due to the increased exposure to third-party risks. Gartner has recommended enhancing risk management initiatives for third-party services and establishing relationships with critical external partners that are mutually beneficial to ensure that the most critical assets are safeguarded continually.  

It has emphasized the strengthening of contingency plans for all third-party engagements by taking measures such as creating third-party-specific incident playbooks, conducting tabletop exercises, and defining a clear offboarding strategy.  

An organization’s attack surface is the sum of vulnerabilities, pathways, or methods—sometimes called attack vectors—that hackers can use to gain unauthorized access to the network or sensitive data, or to carry out a cyberattack. 

Trend 5: Continuous threat exposure management programs gain momentum 

Gartner recommends that security leaders must engage in continuous monitoring of their hybrid digital environments for early identification and optimal prioritization of vulnerabilities which will help maintain a hardened organizational attack surface.  

What is an organizational attack surface? 

It is a blanket term for a sum of all the possible attack vectors comprising the methods, pathways vulnerabilities, etc that an attacker can leverage to gain unauthorized access, to orchestrate an attack.  

It is predicted that by 2026, all the organizations that have prioritized their security investments based on Continuous Threat Exposure Management will have reduced breaches by two-thirds.  

Continuous Threat Exposure Management (CTEM) is a strategic approach to cybersecurity that goes beyond just reacting to threats and emphasizes proactive, continuous monitoring and management of an organization’s vulnerabilities to cyberattacks. 

What is a Continuous Threat Exposure Management Program? 

It is a proactive approach that goes further from responding to threats and emphasizes continuous monitoring and vulnerability management.  

Trend 6: Extending the Role of Identity & Access Management to Improve Cybersecurity Outcomes 

Gartner predicts that there will be a major shift in the approach to security from network security and other controls to identity and access management. Identity and Access Management will become the fundamental basis for defining cybersecurity and business outcomes.  

There will be an increase in the role of IAM in security programs with an enhanced focus on the establishment of cybersecurity hygiene and hardening of systems to improve resilience.  

Gartner has recommended businesses strengthen and leverage their Identity Threat Detection and Response and ensure that IAM is working at its best to support the security program overall. 

What is meant by Identity and Access Management (IAM)? 

It encompasses everything – (processes, procedures, policies, technologies, etc) that has to do with the management of digital identities. It defines how a user with a specific digital identity accesses resources and defines what they can do with them.  

What are some essential components of Identity and Access Management (IAM)? 

• Identity lifecycle management  
• Access control 
• Authentication and authorization 
• Identity governance 

Gartner Identifies the Top Cybersecurity Trends for 2024

Essential Gartner Insights derived from the predictions 

• There is a solid long-term hope for Generative AI but prompt fatigue in the short run 
• Outcome Driven Metrics will become the basis of the cybersecurity investment  strategy 
• Security Behavior and Cultural Programs (SBCPs) will gain traction over Security Awareness Programs (SAP) 
• By 2026, all the organizations that have prioritized their security investments based on Continuous Threat Exposure Management will have reduced breaches by two-thirds 
• By 2027, 50% of CISOs from large enterprises will have adopted human-centric security design practices 

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